4.8%

This is, according to the game, the rate of pulling a 5★ Saint, in a single 1x pull on the main pool (banner).
Basically, it's a 5★ Saint once every two 10x pulls.

While the traditional chinese versions have been around for more than a year, the game has only been released globally a few weeks ago.
Most players are likely focused on chasing dupes to further advance.

In this content, we are going to explore what's behind this 4.8% rate.
Disclaimer: the following content may have evolved since it was published. Unlike the others parts, this one is not dynamically updated.

Subpools

Each pool (banner) is composed of several subpools.
It can be either contaning Saints or Items.

In the main pool case, the subpools only contain Saints.We are limiting the list to the 5★ subpools.

• A is the top Premium subpool, composed of Evil Saga.
• B is the lower Premium subpool, composed of Dôko.
• C is the Gold subpool, composed of 8 Gold Saints + Athena.
• D is the Silver subpool, composed of 14 Silver Saints.
• E is the Bronze subpool, composed of 15 Bronze and Black Bronze Saints.
• F and G are the 3★ and 2★ subpools, not included in the 4.8% rate

You can find the details here.

Aiolos, Shaka and Saga are not currently part of any subpool.
Aiolos will join B, whereas Saga and Shaka will join A.

What about the traditional chinese version?

Now that we explored the global version subpools, let's switch the focus to the traditional chinese version
Like most gachas with differents timelines, the most advance version is used as a forecast for the others ones.

That app also displays the same 4.8% rate.
At first sight, it seems fine... and it is.

Let's continue to better see the side effect of this fixed rate but first we also need to explore the traditional chinese subpools.

Traditional chinese subpools

The subpools are extensions of the previous ones.

Each subpool has it's own weight, which divided by the main pool's weight gives the rate.
On both versions, the subpools have the same weights.

In the main pool case, the subpools only contain Saints.

• A is the top Premium subpool, composed of 13 Saints.
• B is the lower Premium subpool, composed of 10 Saints.
• C is the Gold subpool, composed of 19 Saints. It now also contains Marinas and June.
• D is the Silver subpool, composed of 15 Silver Saints. It now also contains Tethys.
• E is the Bronze subpool, composed of 15 Bronze and Black Bronze Saints.

The Dôko Case

Note: it could've been done with Evil Saga but Dôko is a better fit since we had a free dupe.

You just pulled your first copy of Dôko on the global.
Great, you now need to pull more dupes.

On the global version, Dôko is alone in its subpool. He takes 100% of the weight of its subpool.
On the traditional chinese version, Dôko has to share the subpool with 9 others Saints. He only takes 10% of the weight of its subpool.

Harder to get dupes?

The subpool weight did not change in the future, you will still have the same changes to get a 5★ Saint from this subpool.
Given a number of pulls to get 10 Dôko on the global, you will have got 1 Dôko and 9 others 5★ Saint from the same subpool.Note: Assuming we could reproduce the very same series of randoms on both versions.

In order to progress in the game, you will need dupes to evolve your saints.
We finally get to the point: the chances to get dupes will reduce over time.
You will still get dupes, but it will be harder to get a dupe for a specific Saint.

Are all Saints concerned?

Actually not as much.
It depends which subpools the Saint is part of.

Wish Card

Yes, the Wish Card kind of compensate this issue but it has a few limits to that effect.

• It cannot compensate a case like Dôko.
• It is limited, thus a maximum of 12 Saints could be protected from the effect.
• The picks are limited to Gold (subpool C) and Silver (subpool D) subpools.

Final note

Even if the traditional chinese version is kind of a forecast for global players, we do not have any reliable method to forecast the traditional chinese version itself.
There are plenty of factors or evolutions which could invalidate what we are able to see on the actual 1-year span between the two versions.